Maintaining a positive migration balance

The migration balance – the number of people moving into a city minus the number of people moving out of that same city – is considered an important indicator of a city’s attractiveness. This index is calculated and published every year on Jerusalem Day and usually receives great attention in the media, despite the fact that the migration balance in Jerusalem has not changed dramatically over the last 20 years, and is usually between -5,000 and -7,000. This balance is the difference between some 10,000 residents who move to the city every year minus the 15,000 to 17,000 residents who leave the city every year.

Comings and Goings

Yair Assaf-Shapira

Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research   en.jerusaleminstitute.org.il

In 2014 a total of 10,350 people moved to Jerusalem from other localities in Israel. In the same year 17,090 men, women, and children left Jerusalem. Jerusalem is Israel’s most populous city, yet in terms of incoming as well as outgoing residents – or in-migrants and out-migrants in the professional jargon – it is second to Tel Aviv. A total of 20,520 people moved to Tel Aviv, and 21,450 left. In other words, 4.8% of Tel Aviv’s population as of the close of 2014 were newly arrived residents and 5.1% of its residents at the start of 2014 left the city during the course of the year. In Jerusalem 1.3% of the population were in-migrants, and 2.1% were out-migrants. Adjusting the data to the Jewish population, given that migration among the Arab population is minimal and largely unreported, the figures stand at 1.9% and 3.3%, respectively.

High rates of in-migration and out-migration reflect a high population turnover in a city. Often this results from a city being located at the center of a metropolis or adjacent to it. In Givatayim, for example, the rates of in-migration and out-migration are 6.4% and 6.5%, respectively, and among Israel’s cities with a population of more than 20,000 residents, it is second only to Eilat (6.8% and 7.4%). Haifa, too, has higher rates than Jerusalem, at 2.8% and 3.2%. The higher the rates, the faster the population turnover of a city: it might serve as a “transfer station” where new residents, such as university students, leave the city after a certain period, or it might be that new residents take the place of other population groups that have moved away. Another possibility is an influx of newcomers moving into newly built housing – a situation that draws many new residents with no parallel outflow.

A city’s migration balance – the difference between in-migration and out-migration – can tell us whether population turnover or newly built housing is behind the change. The highest migration balance in relation to the population (among cities with a population of more than 20,000) was recorded in Yavne, at 6.7%, indicating the net addition of newly arrived residents minus out-migrants, as a percentage of the population. That number is exceptionally high, and it is followed by Pardes Hannah and Hod HaSharon (1.8%) and Kiyat Ono (1.7%). These localities are characterized by widespread construction, usually on the same scale as their migration balance in terms of number of apartments.

Large negative migration balances in relation to the population size were recorded in Mevasseret Zion (-2.7%) and Safed (-2.3%). Jerusalem had a negative migration balance in 2014, at -0.8%. The figures for Tel Aviv and Haifa that year were -0.2% and -0.4%, respectively.

Translation: Merav Datan

Intra city Migration

Yair Assaf-Shapira

On the occasion of Jerusalem Day, celebrated this week, we look at figures from the new Statistical Yearbook of Jerusalem, published annually by the institute. The figures of intra-city migration, or migration from place to place within Jerusalem, are often good indicators for the appeal of neighborhoods to incoming Jerusalemite migrants, and also indicate which neighborhoods are experiencing negative in-city migration.

When we look at the map, showing only in-city migration balance (for 2011), we see a few trends. First of all, we can see the negative migration from the city center, and its adjacent neighborhoods. The city center as a whole was left by 870 of its residents in 2011, of which 500 left to other places in Jerusalem, and the rest left the city. Incoming migrants to the same area were 710 people, of which 400 came from within Jerusalem, resulting in an overall negative balance of -160, and an intra-city balance of -100. Using the same method we find that Romema has a negative intra-city balance of -200, and Har Nof of -180. Outer neighborhoods are characterized by inter-city migration flows, so for example compared to an inter-city balance of -930 and -650 for Ramot Alon and pisgat Zeev (accordingly), their intra-city balances of +60 and +70 (accordingly) are negligible. This means that these neighborhoods, being far from the centers of activity, have a weaker connection to the city. Migration from Ramot to Modiin is a smaller decision than migrating from Rehavia to it.

Positive intra-city migration can be identified for Har Homa , although not as high as previous years, standing at +208 in 2011. The Katamonim (A-I), being in a gentrification process, also saw positive intra city balance of +120, with 1370 out migrants, and 1490 incoming. Other neighborhoods with meaningful positive intra-city balance were Beit Hakerem, Geula, Ramat-Sharet, and Talpiot.

In the Arab sector, the strongest trend is out-migration from the old city, and mainly from the Muslim quarter, which had an intra-city balance of -1243. Apparently these migrants moved mainly North - to Kfar Aqeb, Beit Hanina, and Shuafat. 

The data in their entirety appear on The Yearbook, and all are invited to use it.

Data source: Statistical Yearbook of Jerusalem, 2013