Within your Walls

Tehila Bigman

Lack of accessibility, unbearable noise pollution, and community life and an ideology that make it all worthwhile – these sum up the character of the Jewish Quarter in Jerusalem's Old City.

The physical conditions in the Jewish Quarter, such as the alleyways, the paving stones, and the numerous stairs, the acute lack of parking spots (while those that do exist are far from the homes), and above all the non-stop noise – whether from festivals or groups of local or foreign tourists – might dissuade some of us. But if you ask the people who live there, they will tell you that it's all worthwhile.

Young Neve Yaacov

Shaya Rosenblum

In every discussion about the demographic future of Jerusalem and its various neighborhoods, the residential patterns of young people (20- to 34-year-olds) within the city must be taken into consideration. At these ages, following their army service, most people are setting out independently, studying at academic institutions, seeking employment, or marrying and starting families. Personal choices about where to live that are made at this time of life have significant influence on the character of the city and its neighborhoods.

Among the haredi population, young couples are mostly unable to purchase or rent an apartment in the neighborhoods where they were born, and they tend to move outside the city. The minority that is able to purchase an apartment in Jerusalem can only do so in the secular neighborhoods on the periphery, which leads to the phenomenon of "haredization" in these neighborhoods.

The following is a 2011-2015 analysis of the Jerusalem neighborhoods where young people (aged 20-34) constitute more than 40% of the adult (over 20-year-old) population.

Excluding the areas where the Hebrew University dormitories are located, and where, not surprisingly, there is a high concentration of young people, constituting 50 to 94% of the population, the figures regarding the areas where there are high concentrations of young people should teach us about the preferred areas in which to reside on the part of secular and observant young people on the one hand, and about the areas chosen by young haredi families on the other.

The most prominent finding is that the haredi neighborhoods have the highest percentages of young people (aged 20-34), with their percentages reaching as high as 60% of the adults in the Bayit VeGan neighborhood. In many Arab neighborhoods as well, young people comprise up to 51% of the adult population, one example being New Anata (Ras Shehada). Both these population groups are characterized by high fertility rates (3.23 among the Arabs, and 6.9 among the haredi population) and therefore their populations are younger relative to the general population in Israel.

A deeper analysis teaches us about patterns of "haredization" in certain Jerusalem neighborhoods and about the neighborhoods preferred by secular and religious young people.

In upper (western) Neve Ya'acov there is a continuous increase in the number of young people – from 3,840 in 2011 to 4,450 in 2015 – a 15% increase, among the residents aged 20 to 34. This is an increase from 45.5% in 2011, to 51% in 2015. The story behind the figures is that in recent years a trend of "haredization" has been observed, moving from the lower (eastern) part of the neighborhood (that has been haredi since its inception) to the upper part. When considering the young families (defined as having children aged 0 to 9, and parents aged 25 to 39), the "haredization" in Neve Ya'acov  grants the area the highest percentage of young families among Jerusalem neighborhoods, where they comprise 62% of the residents in the upper part of the neighborhood.

When studying the concentrations of people aged 20 to 34, it emerges that the areas they prefer are the various parts of Nahlaot and the center of the city, in the triangle formed by the streets Jaffa, King George, and Agron, where they comprise between 41 and 53% of the residents. These areas experienced an increase of 14% in the total number of young people who reside in them, between 2011 and 2015, when the numbers grew from 3,550 to 4,050.

In Rehavia, young people constitute 43% of the adult population. The neighborhood is popular among students, and also among young haredi families from North America. The highest growth rate was recorded in the northern part of Rehavia adjacent to the Sha'arei Hesed neighborhood. For young families, Nahlaot leads among the non-haredi neighborhoods, where young families number about 51% of the adult residents. However, the percentage of children in the neighborhood is low relative to other neighborhoods such as Talpiot, Gilo, Pisgat Ze'ev, Ir Ganim and Nayot. The recorded high percentage is actually comprised of a very high concentration of 25 to 29-year-olds who don't have children.

The data clearly reveals that Nahlaot and the city center are the preferred temporary neighborhoods for young people who have not chosen to start a family, as compared to the concentrations of young haredi people who are starting families in the neighborhoods they choose to settle in.

Translation: Gilah Kahn

Comings and Goings

Yair Assaf-Shapira

Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research   en.jerusaleminstitute.org.il

In 2014 a total of 10,350 people moved to Jerusalem from other localities in Israel. In the same year 17,090 men, women, and children left Jerusalem. Jerusalem is Israel’s most populous city, yet in terms of incoming as well as outgoing residents – or in-migrants and out-migrants in the professional jargon – it is second to Tel Aviv. A total of 20,520 people moved to Tel Aviv, and 21,450 left. In other words, 4.8% of Tel Aviv’s population as of the close of 2014 were newly arrived residents and 5.1% of its residents at the start of 2014 left the city during the course of the year. In Jerusalem 1.3% of the population were in-migrants, and 2.1% were out-migrants. Adjusting the data to the Jewish population, given that migration among the Arab population is minimal and largely unreported, the figures stand at 1.9% and 3.3%, respectively.

High rates of in-migration and out-migration reflect a high population turnover in a city. Often this results from a city being located at the center of a metropolis or adjacent to it. In Givatayim, for example, the rates of in-migration and out-migration are 6.4% and 6.5%, respectively, and among Israel’s cities with a population of more than 20,000 residents, it is second only to Eilat (6.8% and 7.4%). Haifa, too, has higher rates than Jerusalem, at 2.8% and 3.2%. The higher the rates, the faster the population turnover of a city: it might serve as a “transfer station” where new residents, such as university students, leave the city after a certain period, or it might be that new residents take the place of other population groups that have moved away. Another possibility is an influx of newcomers moving into newly built housing – a situation that draws many new residents with no parallel outflow.

A city’s migration balance – the difference between in-migration and out-migration – can tell us whether population turnover or newly built housing is behind the change. The highest migration balance in relation to the population (among cities with a population of more than 20,000) was recorded in Yavne, at 6.7%, indicating the net addition of newly arrived residents minus out-migrants, as a percentage of the population. That number is exceptionally high, and it is followed by Pardes Hannah and Hod HaSharon (1.8%) and Kiyat Ono (1.7%). These localities are characterized by widespread construction, usually on the same scale as their migration balance in terms of number of apartments.

Large negative migration balances in relation to the population size were recorded in Mevasseret Zion (-2.7%) and Safed (-2.3%). Jerusalem had a negative migration balance in 2014, at -0.8%. The figures for Tel Aviv and Haifa that year were -0.2% and -0.4%, respectively.

Translation: Merav Datan

Households and Religiosity

Yair Assaf-Shapira
Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies  www.jiis.org

Every year, on the occasion of "Jerusalem Day", the Jerusalem Institute publishes the annual Statistical Yearbook of Jerusalem. The yearbook is the main data source on the city, and as such, it's used regularly by the writers of this column.

We tend to thoroughly examine population (persons) data, but today I want to look at household (HH) data. When trying to estimate demand for housing as well as for other services, HH data is sometimes more important than persons data.

There are 2.3 million HHs in Israel, and 210,100 of them live in Jerusalem. Jerusalem's share of HHs in Israel is lower than its share of population (8.8% compared with 10%), due to the relatively large HH size in the capital (3.9 persons compared with 3.3 in Israel). The balance between the Jewish and Arab HHs is also different than the populations balance, and the Jewish HHs form 71% of the total HHs, compared with 63% of the population.

Household size in Jerusalem may be large on average, but still, 38% of the HHs are of one or two persons only. These HHs include Jerusalem's many students and other young adults. Among the Jewish HHs this figure rises to 47%, or almost half of the HHs, slightly higher even than the figure for the Jewish HHs in Israel (46%). With such a high percentage of small HHs, it may be asked how come the average HH size in the city is larger than in Israel. The answer lies in the high percentage of HHs sized 7 persons and above in Jerusalem (15%, compared with 5.9% in Israel).

As of this yearbook, thanks to changes in the Labor Force Survey held by the Central Bureau of Statistics, data is available about the breakdown of the HHs by religious affiliation. Among the Jewish HHs, the secular and traditional HHs form 45%, the "very religious" and Ultra-orthodox form 33%, and the observant (religious) HHs, 22%. Among the Arab HHs, traditional and secular HHs form 64% (the majority of whom stated they were traditional), and observant (together with a very small percentage of "very religious") HHs, form 36%.

What's My Age, Again?

Omer Yaniv

Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies   www.jiis.org

Jerusalem today has a total of 840,000 residents, making it Israel’s most populous city. The city’s unique age distribution differentiate it from the country at large and from other cities. Among Israel’s major cities (more than 100,000 residents), Jerusalem is second only to Bnei Brak in having the youngest population: according to the Central Bureau of Statistics, over one-third of the city’s residents are below the age of 14, compared with 20% for Tel Aviv and Haifa, and 28% of the population of Israel at large. In contrast, only 15.5% of Jerusalem’s residents are 55 years old or older, compared with nearly a fifth of Israel’s residents, approximately a quarter of Tel Aviv residents, and 31.4% of Haifa residents. The median age for Jerusalem in 2015 was 23.7 years, in contrast to Israel, where the median age was 29.7. In Tel Aviv and Haifa, by comparison, the median age was 35.3 and 38.1, respectively.

An examination of Jerusalem’s internal age distribution reveals that the median age of the city’s Jewish residents, at 25.7 years, is higher than that of the Muslim population, at 20 years. The median age of West Jerusalem residents is higher than the figure for East Jerusalem: 26.3 years versus 22.3. The median age of women in Jerusalem is 24 years, higher than the figure for men, at 22.

In terms of Jerusalem neighborhoods, data from the Municipality of Jerusalem indicate that the youngest neighborhoods – those with the highest percentages of residents below age 21 – are ultra-orthodox (haredi) or located in East Jerusalem. Foremost among these are Me’a She’arim (61% of neighborhood residents), Ramat Shlomo (61%), and Kafr ‘Aqab (59%). In absolute figures, Ramot (25,440 residents), Shu’afat (19,630), and Romema (18,340) have the largest numbers of young residents. The neighborhoods with the highest percentages of elderly residents, aged 61 and above, are Talbiyeh (36%), the German Colony (31%), and Rehavia (29%). In absolute figures, Pisgat Ze’ev (6,390), Gilo (6,090), and Ramot (4,600) have the largest numbers of elderly residents.

Sources of data: Central Bureau of Statistics, Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, Municipality of Jerusalem

                       

“Mixed Cities” in Israel

Dr. Maya Choshen

This time we aim to present a quantitative picture of the Jewish and Arab populations of Jerusalem and other cities in Israel where Jewish and Arab communities reside alongside one another. 

At the end of 2011, Jerusalem had a total population of 804,400, which included 511,400 Jewish residents and 293,000 Arab residents. The Arab population comprised a Muslim majority (96%) and Christian minority. During this year the population of Jerusalem constituted approximately10% of the total population of Israel; the city’s Jewish population constituted about 8% of the total Jewish population of Israel, and its Arab population constituted about 18% of the total Arab population of Israel. 

At the end of 2011, the proportion of the Arab population within the total population of Jerusalem (36%) was higher than its proportion within Israel (21%). We customarily speak of our mixed cities and tend to include Jerusalem in one breath with Haifa and Tel Aviv-Jaffa. Before reading further, think about the number of Jews and the number of Arabs in Haifa and Tel Aviv-Jaffa: What are these numbers, and what is the proportion of Jewish residents and Arab residents within the total population of each city, respectively?

In fact, among the three major cities, Jerusalem had the largest Jewish population, numbering 511,400, compared with 388,100 in Tel Aviv-Jaffa and 242,500 in Haifa. The Arab population of Jerusalem is also the largest: 293,000, compared with 27,800 in Haifa and 16,700 in Tel Aviv-Jaffa.

And what is the relative proportion of each population group? The proportion of the Arab population within the total population of Jerusalem (36%) is greater than its proportion within the total population of Israel (21%), Haifa (10%), and Tel Aviv-Jaffa (4%).

And what about the other mixed urban local authorities?

At the end of 2011, a total of 399,200 Arabs resided in eight cities in Israel that had an Arab population of 4% or higher. The Arab population of these cities, termed “mixed cities” for our purposes, constituted 25% of the total Arab population of Israel. As noted, 293,000 of them resided in Jerusalem, constituting 74% of the total number of Arabs residing within the mixed cities of Israel.

At the end of 2011, Lod had a total population of 70,300, which included 19,800 Arab residents (28%). Ramla had a total population of 67,000, with 15,100 Arab residents (22%). Eilat had a total population of 46,700, with 1,900 Arab residents (4%). Acco (Acre) had a total population of 46,500, with 14,000 Arab residents (30%). Nazareth Illit (Upper Nazareth) had a total population of 40,600, with 7,200 Arabs (18%). Ma’alot-Tarshiha had a total population of 21,000, with 4,100 Arab residents (20%).

The above statistics, which are presented in descending order of total population size within mixed cities, indicate that the local authority with the highest percentage of Arab residents is Jerusalem, with 36%, followed by Acco with 30%, then in descending order, Lod with 28% Arab residents, Ramla with 22%, Ma’a lot-Tarshiha with 20%, Nazareth Illit with 18%, Haifa with 10%, and Tel Aviv-Jaffa and Eilat with 4% each. 

Over the years the proportion of the Jewish population within Jerusalem has shown a decline, while simultaneously the proportion of the Arab population has increased. The percentage of Jewish residents in the city decreased from 74% in 1967 to 72% in 1980, to 68% in 2000, and to 64% in 2011. Simultaneously the Arab population increased from 26% in 1967 to 28% in 1980, to 32% in 2000, and to 36% in 2011.

Source of data: The Central Bureau of Statistics

The Educational System of Jerusalem

Lior Lehrs

Jerusalem’s educational system reflects the city’s diverse population and comprises three principal sectors: national and national-religious education, which is managed by the Jerusalem Education Administration within the Municipality (JEA); municipal Arab education, which includes official educational institutions and recognized but unofficial institutions that operate according to the educational curriculum of the Palestinian Authority (also managed by the JEA); and ultra-orthodox educational institutions managed by the Haredi educational division within the Municipality.

According to data from the Jerusalem Municipality, in the 2011-2012 academic year the city’s municipal educational system has 224,650 students. Of these, 43% attend Haredi educational institutions, 31% attend municipal Arab educational institutions, and 26% attend national and national-religious institutions. These statistics do not include students receiving a private Arab education, whose total is estimated at approximately 20,000.

Among students in grades 7-12 (middle and high school), a total of 37% receive a Haredi education, 33% receive a municipal Arab education, and 30% receive a state or state-religious education. At the elementary school level, by comparison, the figure for Haredi students is close (38%), slightly higher for Arab students (38%), and lower for national and religious-national students (24%). Among kindergarten children, the percentage receiving a Haredi education is particularly high – 48% – as compared to the figures for municipal Arab education (28%) and national or national-religious (24%). The percentage of Haredi children in kindergarten is especially high because it is affected by the relatively low percentage of Arab children, many of whom do not attend the municipal kindergartens. A separate analysis of students in the national education system reveals that their percentage decreases in accordance with the following age groups: they represent 19% of the city’s high school students, 15% of junior high school students, 12% of elementary school students, and 10% of kindergarten children.

An analysis of trends over the past 10 years (compared to the 2000-2001 academic year) reveals that the most significant change occurred within the municipal Arab educational sector, where the number of students increased by 126%. This change resulted from the Ministry of Education’s increased recognition of private Arab schools in Jerusalem as “recognized but unofficial institutions,” the construction of new classrooms, which increased the capacities of the schools, and natural population growth. During the same period, the number of students receiving a Haredi education increased by 30%, and within the national and national-religious sector there was a 12% decrease.

Source: Analysis of data of the Municipality of Jerusalem